TY - JOUR
T1 - A bibliometric method for measuring the degree of technological innovation
AU - Yeo, Woondong
AU - Kim, Seonho
AU - Park, Hyunwoo
AU - Kang, Jaewoo
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIP) ( 2012R1A2A2A01014729 ) and the Next-Generation Information Computing Development Program through NRF MISP ( 2012M3C4A7033341 ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2015/6/1
Y1 - 2015/6/1
N2 - Knowing the degree and stage of a product's innovation is essential for technological forecasting and beneficial for governments and firms that want to come up with product promotion strategies and prioritize investments. Bibliometric analysis has been widely used as a practical tool to evaluate scientific activities. Although there were many bibliometric-based attempts to model product innovation stages, there have not been any trials that approach it from the standpoint of uncertainty reduction in technological product innovation. This paper suggests two hypotheses: 1) at a macro level, the year-to-year difference in relative research volumes of each component decreases over time as the uncertainty of a product decreases; and 2) at a micro level, the year-to-year difference in relative research volumes of each component is correlated with the technological life cycle of a product's core component. In addition, we provide empirical evidence that supports the hypotheses in the case study of mobile phones. From the evidence, we conclude that bibliometric analysis using research papers can measure the uncertainty in a product's technological innovation.
AB - Knowing the degree and stage of a product's innovation is essential for technological forecasting and beneficial for governments and firms that want to come up with product promotion strategies and prioritize investments. Bibliometric analysis has been widely used as a practical tool to evaluate scientific activities. Although there were many bibliometric-based attempts to model product innovation stages, there have not been any trials that approach it from the standpoint of uncertainty reduction in technological product innovation. This paper suggests two hypotheses: 1) at a macro level, the year-to-year difference in relative research volumes of each component decreases over time as the uncertainty of a product decreases; and 2) at a micro level, the year-to-year difference in relative research volumes of each component is correlated with the technological life cycle of a product's core component. In addition, we provide empirical evidence that supports the hypotheses in the case study of mobile phones. From the evidence, we conclude that bibliometric analysis using research papers can measure the uncertainty in a product's technological innovation.
KW - Bibliometrics
KW - Data mining
KW - Kullback-Leibler divergence
KW - Mobile phone
KW - Product life cycle (PLC)
KW - Technological product innovation
KW - Technology forecasting
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84939963006&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.018
DO - 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.018
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84939963006
SN - 0040-1625
VL - 95
SP - 152
EP - 162
JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change
ER -
