A Conceptual Framework for Modeling Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Diesel Attenuation Capacity: A Case Study across Namyangju, South Korea

The vadose zone acts as a natural buffer against groundwater contamination, and thus, its attenuation capacity (AC) directly affects groundwater vulnerability to pollutants. A regression model from the previous study predicting the overall AC of soils against diesel was further expanded to the GIS-based overlay-index model. Among the six physicochemical parameters used in the regression model, saturation degree (SD) is notably susceptible to climatological and meteorological events. To accommodate the lack of soil SD historical data, a series of infiltration simulations were separately conducted using Phydrus code with moving boundary conditions (i.e., rainfall records). The temporal variation of SD and the resulting AC under transient conditions are captured by building a space–time cube using a temporal raster across the study area within the designated time frame (1997–2022). The emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) tool, based on the Getis–Ord Gi* and Mann–Kendall statistics, is applied to further identify any existing pattern associated with both SD and AC in both space and time simultaneously. Under stationary conditions, AC decreases along depth and is relatively lower near water bodies. Similarly, AC cold spot trends also show up near water bodies under transient conditions. The result captures not only the trends across time but also shows the exact location where the changes happen. The proposed framework provides an efficient tool to look for locations that have a persistently low or a gradually decreasing ability to attenuate diesel over time, indicating the need for stricter management regulations from a long-term perspective.