Activity based prediction of on-site CO₂ emissions containing uncertainty

Recently, the importance of reducing embodied carbon has become clear. The construction stages, is the stage where the building production takes place, and a large quantity of embodied carbon is emitted. However, because this stage presents a variety of sources of uncertainty at building sites, it is difficult to compute and predict precise CO₂ emissions. To solve this problem, existing research has estimated emissions amounts by considering the variability of the main materials' carbon emission factor, as well as the variability of the equipment's activity conditions. However, these approaches are unable to reflect uncertainty at activity level, leading to an underestimation of CO₂ emissions. In this research, we perform an analysis by considering the uncertainty of CO₂ emissions in the construction stage at activity level. In addition, from the results, we recognize the relevance of considering uncertainty for each activity. Therefore, we present a CO₂ emission prediction method using a Monte Carlo simulation and confirm its effectiveness. We believe that the outcome of this research advocates for the necessity of considering the uncertainty in each activity and contributes to the prediction and management of on-site emissions.