Since the Cambodian economy is largely dependent on agricultural production, it is important to understand the effects of climate change on rice production, the primary staple crop of Cambodia. This study assessed the economic impacts of climate change in Cambodia to provide an appropriate set of policy suggestions that could lead to sustainable agricultural productivity and economic growth. The results from the GLAM-Rice crop model and various climate models indicate that Cambodia will be severely affected by climate change, which will lead to lower rice production and economic growth. The changes in rice yield under the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 baseline scenarios reduced the GDP by 8.16% and 10.57%, respectively. By employing an investment model based on a real options framework, the economic effects and feasibility of adaptation strategies such as irrigation and adjustment of planting dates are identified. The analysis indicates that irrigation is a feasible option and the most efficacious strategy to reduce the negative impacts of climate change for the agricultural sector. The index of economic feasibility for irrigation, defined by the ratio of the current realized agriculture value-added to the identified threshold, is 0.6343 and 0.8803 under the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 baseline scenarios, respectively. The results suggest that the priority choice for adaptation measure be in order of irrigation, 20-day later adjustment, and 20-day earlier adjustment.
Bibliographical notePublisher Copyright:
© 2018 by the authors.
- Climate change
- Food security
- Real options analysis
- Rice yields
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Geography, Planning and Development
- Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
- Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
- Energy Engineering and Power Technology
- Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law