Recently, multistep-ahead prediction has attracted much attention in electric load forecasting because it can deal with sudden changes in power consumption caused by various events such as fire and heat wave for a day from the present time. On the other hand, recurrent neural networks (RNNs), including long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, can reflect the previous point well to predict the current point. Due to this property, they have been widely used for multistep-ahead prediction. The GRU model is simple and easy to implement; how-ever, its prediction performance is limited because it considers all input variables equally. In this paper, we propose a short-term load forecasting model using an attention based GRU to focus more on the crucial variables and demonstrate that this can achieve significant performance improve-ments, especially when the input sequence of RNN is long. Through extensive experiments, we show that the proposed model outperforms other recent multistep-ahead prediction models in the building-level power consumption forecasting.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
This research was supported in part by the Energy Cloud R&D Program (grant number: 2019M3F2A1073184) through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT and in part by the Korea Electric Power Corporation (grant number: R18XA05).
© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
- Attention mechanism
- Building electrical energy consumption forecasting
- Gated recurrent unit
- Multistep-ahead forecasting
- Short-term load forecasting
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Analytical Chemistry
- Information Systems
- Atomic and Molecular Physics, and Optics
- Electrical and Electronic Engineering