Assessing the Livelihood Vulnerability of Herders to Changing Climate in Chui Oblast, Kyrgyz Republic

Kyrgyzstan is a country that is heavily reliant on agricultural products and animal husbandry, making it particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Using the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI), this study attempted to assess vulnerability to climate change impacts on land, biodiversity, herders, and livestock in Kyrgyzstan’s mountainous areas. The survey was conducted using respondent interviews. In the Chon-Kemin valley target area, we interviewed 198 nomad households with livestock. The study found that communities rely heavily on pasture resources, that there are almost no human–wildlife conflicts (HWCs), and that climate disasters have limited impact. Major components of herders’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity resulted in low numbers. This, combined with rare climate disasters such as droughts and thus low exposure, reduced vulnerability under the IPCC framework. However, any increase in climate disasters, combined with continued land-use pressure, will severely impact herders and their livelihoods. In Kyrgyzstan, hundreds of livestock and dozens of wild animals have already died as a result of late frosts in pastures. National policies and programs should be revised to improve adaptive capacity. This study calls into question the importance of improving wildlife research and capacity building, as well as cooperation between local and national stakeholders.