Bayesian Networks-based Shield TBM Risk Management System: Methodology Development and Application

Heeyoung Chung, In Mo Lee, Jee Hee Jung, Jeongjun Park

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

28 Citations (Scopus)


A risk management methodology that can be applicable to a shield Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) tunneling project is proposed in this paper. A Shield TBM Risk Analysis Model (STRAM) is developed based on Bayesian networks. STRAM considers geological risk factors and TBM types, such as Earth Pressure Balance (EPB) open mode, EPB closed mode, and slurry TBMs, and systematically identifies the potential risk events that may occur during tunnel construction. It can also quantitatively evaluate the degree of risk for the identified potential risk events by estimating the cost of countermeasures against event occurrence. The proposed methodology based on STRAM can minimize the drawbacks of the TBM tunneling method, including difficulty in substituting the machine type once it is selected and excessive delay of the project due to unexpected risk events.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)452-465
Number of pages14
JournalKSCE Journal of Civil Engineering
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2019 Jan 1

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research was supported by a grant (Project number: 18SCIP-B066321-06, Development of Key Subsea Tunneling Technology) from the Infrastructure and Transportation Technology Promotion Research Program funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean government and a grant from Research and Development Program of the Korea Railroad Research Institute, Republic of Korea.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, Korean Society of Civil Engineers and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.


  • Bayesian networks
  • Shield Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM)
  • degree of risk
  • risk analysis model
  • risk management methodology

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering


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