Broken-line model of dam storage and evaluation of water supply safety using a bivariate frequency analysis

In this study, a new evaluation method for the water supply safety of a dam is proposed. This method considers both climatic conditions and storage characteristics of a dam. The annual variation of dam storage is represented by a broken-line model, the lines of which are determined by only three factors: the monthly design water supply during the dry period; dam storage at the end of the dry period; and changes in dam storage during the wet period. From the results of bivariate frequency analysis, a unique broken-line model is derived under multiple scenarios with the given return periods for the evaluation of water supply. The proposed method is applied to a total of five major dams in Korea. It is shown that the water supply safety of a dam can be quantified by using the concept of the return period, and five major dams have water supply safety corresponding to return periods of 10-50 years. Among them, the Soyanggang Dam is found to be the most stable with respect to water supply safety in Korea.