Can satellite-based data substitute for surveyed data to predict the spatial probability of forest fire? A geostatistical approach to forest fire in the Republic of Korea

To assess which data type is more effective for spatial modeling in the Republic of Korea, we conducted geostatistical analysis based on frequency, intensity, and spatial autocorrelation using two types of forest fire occurrence data: that collected through field survey of the Korea Forest Service (KFS) and satellite active fire data of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used with environmental factors in the spatial modeling of fire probability to compare the accuracy of the two data types based on 10 years of historical data. The results showed a clear difference in fire frequency and similar fire intensity patterns. The spatial autocorrelation between the fire frequency and intensity of the two data types was analyzed using a semi-variogram. Fire intensity was significantly correlated, with the MODIS data having a higher correlation than the KFS data. Examination of the spatial autocorrelation and related factors by fire source also indicated that MODIS data had higher spatial autocorrelation, with remarkable distinction found in climate factors. In spatial the modeling, MODIS data showed a similar outcome to that of hotspot analysis, with higher accuracy and better model performance attributable to high spatial autocorrelation. Even though the KFS data were collected from post-fire surveys, they resulted in low spatial autocorrelation and reduced model accuracy owing to the wide distribution of data. MODIS had many detection errors. With spatial filtering, however, the model accuracy can be improved with relatively high spatial autocorrelation.