Development of decision-making tools for drought monitoring and early warning in Kyrgyzstan

Drought has negative spillover effects in society, economy and environment in Kyrgyzstan. The water scarcity can lead to less crop production and it makes hard to guarantee food security. The management of drought monitoring is necessary for the country because it trigger the vicious circle between drought and socio-economic conditions. This study will assess the risk of drought based on the risk framework developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including climate hazards, environmental exposure and social vulnerability. Thus, the study aims to provide a decision-making tool by predicting each drought dynamics in air, soil and crop, integrating different aspects of climate hazards. On the basis of the concept, the dynamics can be assessed with three steps to achieve the research goal. The study first will define three types of drought which frequently are examined in the Kyrgyzstan. Second, a suitability analysis will be conducted in water, crop and pasture in order to figure out water resources system such as canal and topographical conditions. Following the analyses, this study will finally assess the drought risk of air, soil and crop respectively, applying the proper drought index. As a results, the study will forecast the different scales of climate hazards, and the degree of risk in air, soil and crop drought in Kyrgyzstan. This study will contribute to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in water management and food security. This research is enable Kyrgyzstan to engage in the global research consortium, Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land use and Energy (FABLE).