Development of the ELDC and reliability evaluation of composite power system using Monte Carlo method

This paper presents a method for constructing composite power system effective load duration curves(CMELDC) at load points by a Monte Carlo method. The concept of effective load duration curves(ELDC) in power system planning is useful and important in both HLI and HLII. CMELDC can be obtained from convolution integral processing of the probability function of unsupplied power and the load duration curve at each load point. This concept is analogy to the ELDC in HLI. The reliability indices (LOLP, EDNS) for a composite power system are evaluated using CMELDC. Differences in reliability levels between HL I and HL II come from considering with the uncertainty associated with the outages of the transmission system. It is expected that the CMELDC can be applied usefully to areas such as reliability evaluation, probabilistic production cost simulation and analytical outage cost assessment, etc. in HL II. DC load flow and Monte Carlo methods are used in this study. The characteristics and effectiveness of the methodology are illustrated by a case study of the IEEE RTS.