TY - JOUR
T1 - Fluctuating uncertainty and flexibility value
AU - Shin, Kwanho
N1 - Funding Information:
The financial support of the Alfred P. Sloan Dissertation Fellowship and the National Science Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.
PY - 1999
Y1 - 1999
N2 - A simple model of recurrent fluctuating uncertainty with two types of investment assets, commitment and flexible, where fluctuating uncertainty is defined as changes between high and low confidence regimes, is constructed. By assuming risk neutrality, I find analytically a formula for flexibility value that is defined as the difference between the expected return to the commitment asset and the expected return to the flexible asset. This flexibility value is positive in the low confidence regime because of a positive attribute of the flexibility asset that is the option to utilize new information later. The relation between flexibility value and other parameters of the model is also considered. Flexibility value increases as the information an individual obtains in the high confidence regime increases or the discounting factor of the individual increases. Finally, flexibility value can increase even if, ceteris paribus, the return to the commitment asset increases.
AB - A simple model of recurrent fluctuating uncertainty with two types of investment assets, commitment and flexible, where fluctuating uncertainty is defined as changes between high and low confidence regimes, is constructed. By assuming risk neutrality, I find analytically a formula for flexibility value that is defined as the difference between the expected return to the commitment asset and the expected return to the flexible asset. This flexibility value is positive in the low confidence regime because of a positive attribute of the flexibility asset that is the option to utilize new information later. The relation between flexibility value and other parameters of the model is also considered. Flexibility value increases as the information an individual obtains in the high confidence regime increases or the discounting factor of the individual increases. Finally, flexibility value can increase even if, ceteris paribus, the return to the commitment asset increases.
KW - Commitment
KW - Flexibility value
KW - Fluctuating uncertainty
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0009002447&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S1062-9769(99)00003-4
DO - 10.1016/S1062-9769(99)00003-4
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0009002447
SN - 1062-9769
VL - 39
SP - 329
EP - 340
JO - Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance
JF - Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance
IS - 3
ER -