Generation of runoff ensemble members using the shot noise process based rainfall-runoff model

This study proposes a method to generate runoff ensemble members using a rainfall-runoff model based on the shot noise process (hereafter the rainfall-runoff model). The proposed method was applied to generate runoff ensemble members for three drainage basins of Daerim 2, Guro 1 and the Jungdong, whose results were then compared with the observed. The parameters of the rainfall-runoff model were estimated using the empirical formulas like the Kerby, Kraven II and Russel, also the concept of modified rational formula. Gamma and exponential distributions were used to generate random numbers of the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. Especially, the gamma distribution is found to be useful to generate various random numbers depending on the pre-assigned relationship between mean and standard deviation. Comparison between the generated runoff ensemble members and the observed shows that those runoff ensemble members generated using the gamma distribution with its standard deviation twice of the mean properly cover the observed runoff.