Abstract
This study detects a structural break in international consumer price index (CPI) inflation comovement. We estimate the dynamic common factor models with unknown breakpoints of cross-country inflation rates and global price index of all commodities. We identify two global factors from the models: a commodity global factor and a noncommodity global factor. The former is a common factor between national inflation rates and commodity price index growth; the latter is a common factor among national inflation rates. The estimation of 29 countries' quarterly CPI inflation data from 2001:Q1 to 2018:Q2 shows a onetime break in cross-country inflation dynamics in 2008:Q4. Thereafter, the importance of global factors in explaining the national inflation rates is remarkably increased. Furthermore, the increased global inflation synchronization is mainly driven by the larger role of the noncommodity global factor rather than that of the commodity global factor.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 111-140 |
Number of pages | 30 |
Journal | Macroeconomic Dynamics |
Volume | 27 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2023 Jan 1 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© Cambridge University Press 2021.
Keywords
- Bayesian MCMC estimation
- Variance decomposition
- financial openness
- structural break
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics