Impact of Population Aging on Asia's Future Economic Growth, 2021-2050

Donghyun Park, Kwanho Shin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Developing Asia has grown faster than other parts of the world for decades. However, population aging is expected to pose significant headwinds to the region's future economic growth. We update and enhance the analysis of Park and Shin (2012) to project the impact of population aging on developing Asia's growth between 2021 and 2050. Our projections indicate that a demographic transition will have a substantial negative effect on the region's future growth, but the effect varies across economies. Older economies will suffer a demographic tax, whereas younger economies will continue to enjoy a positive but declining demographic dividend.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)49-78
Number of pages30
JournalAsian Development Review
Volume40
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2023 Mar 1

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Financial support from the Asian Development Bank is gratefully acknowledged. Kwanho Shin also appreciates financial support from the Korea University Grant No. K2209331. We thank Yeram Lee for her excellent research assistance. The Asian Development Bank recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China and “Korea” as the Republic of Korea.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Asian Development Bank.

Keywords

  • Asia
  • aging
  • growth
  • investment
  • labor force
  • saving
  • total factor productivity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Development
  • Economics and Econometrics

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