Developing Asia has grown faster than other parts of the world for decades. However, population aging is expected to pose significant headwinds to the region's future economic growth. We update and enhance the analysis of Park and Shin (2012) to project the impact of population aging on developing Asia's growth between 2021 and 2050. Our projections indicate that a demographic transition will have a substantial negative effect on the region's future growth, but the effect varies across economies. Older economies will suffer a demographic tax, whereas younger economies will continue to enjoy a positive but declining demographic dividend.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
Financial support from the Asian Development Bank is gratefully acknowledged. Kwanho Shin also appreciates financial support from the Korea University Grant No. K2209331. We thank Yeram Lee for her excellent research assistance. The Asian Development Bank recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China and “Korea” as the Republic of Korea.
© 2023 Asian Development Bank.
- labor force
- total factor productivity
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Geography, Planning and Development
- Economics and Econometrics