Maintenance of body weight is an important determinant for the risk of ischemic stroke: A nationwide population-based cohort study

Background Overweight is known as a risk factor for ischemic stroke. However, the effect of weight change on the development of ischemic stroke remains controversial. We investigated the relationship between weight change and the risk of ischemic stroke using a nationwide population-based cohort. Methods Our study enrolled 11,084,683 participants (Mean age 49.7±13.5 years, range 20–114 years) in the Korean National Health Screening Program from 2009 to 2012. Weight change was calculated using the difference between the baseline weight and the weight at health screening four years prior to the baseline. The occurrence of newly-diagnosed ischemic stroke was observed until the end of 2015. We categorized the study population according to weight change and performed multivariable analysis to compare the risk. Results Ischemic stroke was newly diagnosed in 113,591 subjects. The crude incidence rates of ischemic stroke per 1000 person-years according to the change in body weight were 3.059, 1.906, and 1.491 in the <-5%, ±5%, and +5% groups, respectively. After adjusting all variables, the hazard ratio (HR) of ischemic stroke was higher in subjects who underwent weight loss (HR 1.152) or weight gain (HR 1.087) than in those who maintained their weight. When analyzed by eight groups of 5% intervals, the risk showed a U-shaped curve with those who maintained their weight showing the lowest risk. Conclusions The risk of ischemic stroke was gradually increased in those who lost or gained more than 5% of their weight over four years, after adjusting for confounders. We should be aware of the increased risk of ischemic stroke in people who undergo weight change and should identify and manage the cause of weight change.