TY - JOUR
T1 - Prefeasibility study of photovoltaic power potential based on a skew-normal distribution
AU - Kim, Shin Young
AU - Sapotta, Benedikt
AU - Jang, Gilsoo
AU - Kang, Yong Heack
AU - Kim, Hyun Goo
N1 - Funding Information:
Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) and the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy (MOTIE) of the Republic of Korea (No. 20194210200010).
Funding Information:
The article processing charges (APC) was funded by the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) and the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy (MOTIE) of the Republic of Korea (No. 20194210200010).
Funding Information:
Funding: The article processing charges (APC) was funded by the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) and the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy (MOTIE) of the Republic of Korea (No. 20194210200010).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 by the authors.
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Solar energy does not always follow the normal distribution due to the characteristics of natural energy. The system advisor model (SAM), a well-known energy performance analysis program, analyzes exceedance probabilities by dividing solar irradiance into two cases, i.e., when normal distribution is followed, and when normal distribution is not followed. However, it does not provide a mathematical model for data distribution when not following the normal distribution. The present study applied the skew-normal distribution when solar irradiance does not follow the normal distribution, and calculated photovoltaic power potential to compare the result with those using the two existing methods. It determined which distribution was more appropriate between normal and skew-normal distributions using the Jarque–Bera test, and then the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). As a result, three places in Korea showed that the skew-normal distribution was more appropriate than the normal distribution during the summer and winter seasons. The AICc relative likelihood between two models was more than 0.3, which showed that the difference between the two models was not extremely high. However, considering that the proportion of uncertainty of solar irradiance in photovoltaic projects was 5% to 17%, more accurate models need to be chosen.
AB - Solar energy does not always follow the normal distribution due to the characteristics of natural energy. The system advisor model (SAM), a well-known energy performance analysis program, analyzes exceedance probabilities by dividing solar irradiance into two cases, i.e., when normal distribution is followed, and when normal distribution is not followed. However, it does not provide a mathematical model for data distribution when not following the normal distribution. The present study applied the skew-normal distribution when solar irradiance does not follow the normal distribution, and calculated photovoltaic power potential to compare the result with those using the two existing methods. It determined which distribution was more appropriate between normal and skew-normal distributions using the Jarque–Bera test, and then the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). As a result, three places in Korea showed that the skew-normal distribution was more appropriate than the normal distribution during the summer and winter seasons. The AICc relative likelihood between two models was more than 0.3, which showed that the difference between the two models was not extremely high. However, considering that the proportion of uncertainty of solar irradiance in photovoltaic projects was 5% to 17%, more accurate models need to be chosen.
KW - Exceedance probabilities
KW - Global horizontal irradiance (GHI)
KW - Normal distribution
KW - Photovoltaic power potential
KW - Skew-normal distribution
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85078974750&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/en13030676
DO - 10.3390/en13030676
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85078974750
SN - 1996-1073
VL - 13
JO - Energies
JF - Energies
IS - 3
M1 - 676
ER -