Quantitative risk assessment of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) invasion in South Korea under different climate change scenarios

Zhonghyun Kim, Yongjang Cho, Taeyong Shim, Eenjun Hwang, Seo Jin Ki, Kwang Guk An, Jinho Jung

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The number of invasive species threatening freshwater habitats are increasing globally, and can be accelerated by climate change. Thus, risk assessments of potential invasive species are required for establishing prevention measures, in which quantitative risk assessments provide results objectively. In this study, the invasion risk of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) in four major river basins (the Han, Nakdong, Geum, and Yeongsan) in South Korea was evaluated using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). A weighted ensemble of the SDMs was developed to predict the probability of largemouth bass occurrence in the present (2011–2015) and two future periods: 2050 (2046–2055) and 2080 (2076–2085). The invasion risk of largemouth bass was evaluated using two approaches: relative and absolute risk assessments. Both approaches predicted an increase in Tier 1 (the highest risk) areas under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5; however, a decrease in the areas of concern under RCP 8.5. In particular, the upper streams of the Nakdong and Han river basins are expected to be at risk in the future. In addition, Tier 1 risk areas are predicted to shift northward under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, especially in the Nakdong River Basin. This study provides a quantitative risk assessment tool based on the SDMs for the management of largemouth bass invasion under climate change.

Original languageEnglish
Article number3
JournalAquatic Sciences
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2024 Jan

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.


  • Climate change
  • Invasive fish
  • Largemouth bass
  • Risk assessment
  • Species distribution model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Aquatic Science
  • Ecology
  • Water Science and Technology


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