Spatialization and Prediction of Seasonal NO2 Pollution Due to Climate Change in the Korean Capital Area through Land Use Regression Modeling

No Ol Lim, Jinhoo Hwang, Sung Joo Lee, Youngjae Yoo, Yuyoung Choi, Seongwoo Jeon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)


Urbanization is causing an increase in air pollution leading to serious health issues. How-ever, even though the necessity of its regulation is acknowledged, there are relatively few monitoring sites in the capital metropolitan city of the Republic of Korea. Furthermore, a significant relationship between air pollution and climate variables is expected, thus the prediction of air pollution under climate change should be carefully attended. This study aims to predict and spatialize present and future NO2 distribution by using existing monitoring sites to overcome deficiency in monitoring. Prediction was conducted through seasonal Land use regression modeling using variables correlated with NO2 concentration. Variables were selected through two correlation analyses and future pollution was predicted under HadGEM-AO RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Our results showed a relatively high NO2 concentration in winter in both present and future predictions, resulting from elevated use of fossil fuels in boilers, and also showed increments of NO2 pollution due to climate change. The results of this study could strengthen existing air pollution management strategies and mitigation measures for planning concerning future climate change, supporting proper management and control of air pollution.

Original languageEnglish
Article number5111
JournalInternational journal of environmental research and public health
Issue number9
Publication statusPublished - 2022 May 1

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Funding: This research was funded by Korea Environment Industry and Technology Institute (KEITI) through the Decision Support System Development Project for Environmental Impact Assessment and funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (No. 2020002990009), and Korea University Grant.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.


  • air pollution
  • future scenarios
  • land usage
  • pollution management
  • spatial prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pollution
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis


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