The current method of estimating CO2 emissions during the construction phase does not consider the variability that can occur in actual work. Therefore, this study aims at probabilistic CO2 estimation dealing with the statistical characteristics in activity data of building construction work, focused on concrete pouring work and based on field data. The probabilistically estimated CO2 emissions have some differences from CO2 emissions measured by current deterministic methods. The results revealed that the minimum difference was 11.4%, and the maximum difference was 132.7%. This study also used Monte Carlo simulations to derive information on a probability model of CO2 emissions. Results of the analysis revealed that there is a risk of underestimating emissions because the amount of emissions was estimated at a level that exceeds the 95% confidence interval of the simulation results. In addition, the probability that CO2 emissions using the measured activities data were less than the estimated CO2 emissions using the bill of quantity was 73.2% in the probability distribution model.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
Acknowledgments: This research was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea grant number 2016R1A2B3015348 and Architecture & Urban Development Research Program funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean Government grant number 19AUDP-B121595-04.
Funding: This research was funded by National Research Foundation of Korea grant number 2016R1A2B3015348 and Architecture & Urban Development Research Program funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean Government grant number 19AUDP-B121595-04.
© 2019 by the authors.
- CO emissions
- Construction phase
- Monte Carlo simulation
- Stochastic analysis
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Geography, Planning and Development
- Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
- Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
- Energy Engineering and Power Technology
- Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law