The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea

Darae Jeong; Chang Hyeong Lee; Yongho Choi; Junseok Kim

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.072

The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R_0,k,ωⁿ for MERS-CoV in South Korea

Darae Jeong, Chang Hyeong Lee, Yongho Choi, Junseok Kim

Department of Mathematics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters β (contact rate) and γ (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler's method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In R0,k,ωn, the parameters n, k, and w denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	190-197
Number of pages	8
Journal	Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Volume	451
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.072
Publication status	Published - 2016 Jun 1

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The author (D. Jeong) was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology ( 2014R1A6A3A01009812 ). C.H. Lee was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education ( 2014R1A1A2054976 ). The corresponding author (J.S. Kim) was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIP) ( NRF-2014R1A2A2A01003683 ). The authors would like to thank the reviewers for their comments that helped to improve the manuscript.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords

Explicit Euler's method
MERS-CoV
Optimal parameter fitting
SIR model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Statistics and Probability
Condensed Matter Physics

Access to Document

10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.072

Cite this

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title = "The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea",

abstract = "In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters β (contact rate) and γ (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler's method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In R0,k,ωn, the parameters n, k, and w denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.",

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