In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters β (contact rate) and γ (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler's method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In R0,k,ωn, the parameters n, k, and w denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.
|Number of pages||8|
|Journal||Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications|
|Publication status||Published - 2016 Jun 1|
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
The author (D. Jeong) was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology ( 2014R1A6A3A01009812 ). C.H. Lee was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education ( 2014R1A1A2054976 ). The corresponding author (J.S. Kim) was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIP) ( NRF-2014R1A2A2A01003683 ). The authors would like to thank the reviewers for their comments that helped to improve the manuscript.
© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
- Explicit Euler's method
- Optimal parameter fitting
- SIR model
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Statistics and Probability
- Condensed Matter Physics